A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
